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MORGAN STANLEY: Here Are The 45 Best Stocks For The Long Run

Published by Business Insider on Fri, 21 Nov 2014


Morgan Stanley believes that the current economic recoverycould be the longest ever, probably lasting through 2020.In September, strategist Adam Parker saidthe S&P 500 could peak near 3,000 during this cycle.In a recent note to clients, Morgan Stanley analysts identified 45 stocks that could work with the long-term recovery in mind."Given the extremely long time horizon, we were agnostic about current valuation, focusing instead on fundamental business models," they wrote."Starting from a list of over 100 equities highlighted by our analysts, we focused on stocks rated Overweight or Equal-weight in the context of the 12-month time horizon contemplated by Morgan Stanley's stock-rating system," the analysts wrote. "We also examined each stock through the prism of our US Equity Strategy team's quantitative stock-selection model, BEST, which ranks over 1,000 US stocks by their expected market-relative performance on a 24-month horizon."Most of the stocks are in financials, industrials and energy, which Morgan Stanley said typically perform in tandem with the economic cycle.AlcoaTicker:AAPrimary Industry:Metals & MiningPrice Target: $202015 Price to Earnings: 14.6Comment:"We are Overweight on AA because we believe Alcoas upstream business has bottomed and margins should expand, drivenby both higher pricing (stronger supply-demand fundamentals for key commodities) and lower costs (production cuts at high-cost facilities and start-up oflow-cost operations)," wrote Morgan Stanley's Paretosh Misra.Source: Morgan StanleyAlly FinancialTicker:ALLYPrimary Industry:Banking & Financial ServicesPrice Target:$302015 Price to Earnings:11.0Comment:"In an extended economic upcycle, we would expect stronger-for-longer job growth to drive a bull case outlook forauto originations, credit, and lease economics," wrote Morgan Stanley's Betsy Graseck.Source: Morgan StanleyAmerican ExpressTicker:AXPPrimary Industry:Banking & Financial ServicesPrice Target:$1102015 Price to Earnings:15.3Comment:"The vast majority (80%) of AXPs value is driven by spend, and in a longer-than-expected economic upcycle, wewould expect spend to accelerate from the current 9% level to 12%," wrote Morgan Stanley's Betsy Graseck."Higher spend should drive up Amexs revenue growth from 5% up to 8%-plus."Source: Morgan StanleySee the rest of the story at Business Insider
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