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13 places in the US where it's probably not worth investing in real estate for the next decade

Published by Business Insider on Wed, 20 Nov 2019

Hot real-estate markets aren't forever.With changes in the way people work, live, and spend, some US markets that were once hot are cooling.Markets seeing quick declines include neighborhoods in Silicon Valley, San Francisco, and Seattle, along with neighborhoods in Miami Beach and Chicago.These changes probably mean you'll want to look elsewhere to invest in real estate in the near future, but markets are cyclical, and home values are changing all the time.Read more personal finance coverage.Many people say buying a home is an investment, but it doesn't always work out well.Consumer-trends expert Beatrice de Jong of Opendoor says many factors influence the rise or fall of a neighborhood's value, including job availability, schools, and affordability.Data from Zillow shows which US housing markets are cooling the fastest, but there's no need to panic if you've been eyeing these areas."The real-estate market is always cyclical," De Jong says. "It's hyper-local but it's also cyclical."Here are the 13 US real-estate markets losing value the quickest, along with their projected decrease in value over the next year and each area's median home price as calculated by Zillow.13. Greater San Antonio, Mountain View, CaliforniaHome to many large tech companies, this neighborhood of Mountain View, California, is seeing prices decline. De Jong says these West Coast markets are cooling after the height of the tech boom."Seattle, Palo Alto, and Mountain View are big tech hubs," she says. "Most of those cities have a lot of new jobs, high-paying jobs, bringing people up to the area. That really created a spike in the real-estate prices."Current median home value: $1,224,900Year-over-year forecast value drop: 5.83%12. East Village, New York CityNew York City's real-estate market is one that De Jong says can vary widely even by the block and change quickly."New York is so hyper-local, even just to the neighborhood in Manhattan," she says. "Real estate is even affected by something like a subway line being under construction because that affects people's daily commutes."In places like East Village, it's a buyer's market right now, though many people might be looking elsewhere.Current median home value: $1,247,400Year-over-year forecast value drop: 5.83%11. Explorers, Foster City, CaliforniaThis Foster City neighborhood is seeing home values fall, despite how close it is to lots of high-paying jobs in Silicon Valley.Current median home value: $1,258,500Year-over-year forecast value drop: 5.9%10. Crescent Park, Palo Alto, CaliforniaThe median home value in this Palo Alto neighborhood is over $4 million. But just because a home in this neighborhood is worth $4 million today doesn't that doesn't mean it will be tomorrow.Current median home value: $4,456,300Year-over-year forecast value drop: 5.9%9. Irving Park, ChicagoNorthwest of Chicago, this suburb has a lot of history and charming older homes. But, according to Zillow data, values in this neighborhood have fallen over 8% in the past year and are expected to drop another 6% in the next year.Current median home value: $358,000Year-over-year forecast value drop: 6.05%8. Financial District, New York CityThis busy commercial district in New York is seeing home values fall. Homes have fallen about 11% in the past year and are predicted to drop another 6% over the next year. An increase in remote work has made it less necessary for people to stay in these urban markets."With so many people working remotely, it opens up options for living outside of the major cities," De Jong says. "People can have that lifestyle where you can have a house with a bigger yard or more bedrooms in the suburbs or on the outskirts."Current median home value: $939,500Year-over-year forecast value drop: 6.11%7. Burleith, Washington, DCThis DC suburb just north of Georgetown has been seeing falling home prices, even though it has a pretty expensive housing market.Current median home value: $1,023,400Year-over-year forecast value drop: 6.21%6. Old Irving Park, ChicagoJust west of nearby Irving Park, Chicago, this neighborhood is a perfect example of just how cyclical markets can be. In March 2012, Zillow data showed the median home value at $194,000, quickly increasing to $332,000 by May 2018. Ever since, home values have been dropping here again.Current median home value: $290,700Year-over-year forecast value drop: 6.28%5. Charleston Meadow, Palo Alto, CaliforniaAnother Palo Alto town on this list, Charleston Meadow faces challenges with home values, though the median value is well over $2 million.Current median home value: $2,245,300Year-over-year forecast value drop: 6.47%4. Oceanfront, Miami Beach, FloridaMiami Beach sits on a narrow strip of land surrounded by water, west of Miami. With waterfront property on both sides, much of Miami Beach will be very vulnerable to sea level rise.According to a report by the Union of Concerned Scientists, about 12,000 homes in Miami Beach are threatened by sea-level rise over the next 30 years.Current median home value: $406,200Year-over-year forecast value drop: 6.64%3. La Gorce, Miami Beach, FloridaAnother Miami Beach neighborhood, La Gorce, is seeing some big drops in its high-dollar homes. This neighborhood is an island, and rising waters will continue to threaten this community over the next 10 years.Current median home value: $1,870,700Year-over-year forecast value drop: 6.66%2. Noe Valley, San FranciscoSan Francisco has a unique real-estate climate where markets can heat and cool quickly, and Noe Valley is a neighborhood seeing this firsthand. De Jong says San Francisco is always changing."People have been speculating that it's either going to jump up rapidly again and keep on the same incline," she says. "Or they fear that it's a bubble that prices are going to drop, that companies will move out of San Francisco. I haven't actually seen any of that yet."For the most part, people will hold on to their real estate and it will continue to increase over time. It might just not be as great as it has been in the past couple of years."Current median home value: $1,839,300Year-over-year forecast value drop: 6.7%1. North College Park, SeattleHomes in this neighborhood in northern Seattle are losing value at the quickest rates in the nation, and are predicted to lose about 7% in value in the next year.In Seattle overall, the market has cooled a bit, and this neighborhood just north of the city proper reflects that. Zillow data shows that the median value in this city is down from June 2018's high of $750,000 to $700,000 this past September.As the Seattle Times' Paul Roberts reports, it's a highly local trend."The Puget Sound housing market continues to splinter into hot and cold sectorswith substantially more heat the farther south you move," he writes.As a tech city, Seattle is subject to some of the same cooling trends that Silicon Valley is experiencing, and this neighborhood is no different.Current median home value: $599,100Year-over-year forecast value drop: 6.98%More personal finance coverage4 reasons to open a high-yield savings account while interest rates are down It took less than 10 minutes to open a high-yield cash account with Wealthfront and earn more on my savingsHow to buy a house with no money down When to save money in high-yield savingsBest rewards credit cards7 reasons you may need life insurance, even if you think you don't
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