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What history tells us will happen to Trumpism

Published by The Nation on Sun, 21 Feb 2021


By Yasmeen SerhanSince leaving office, Donald Trump has been acquitted in a second impeachment trial, and has reportedly considered launching a new political party, investing in a social-media app, and, perhaps more predictably, making another run for the White House in 2024.In a statement following his acquittal, Trump declared the trial yet another phase of the greatest witch hunt in the history of our Country, adding, Our historic, patriotic, and beautiful movement to Make America Great Again has only just begun.There are plenty of reasons to take Trump at his word. If populist movements have proved anything, its their remarkable staying power, even after their leaders have been removed from power, democratically or otherwise. From Berlusconism in Italy to Peronism in Argentina and Fujimorismo in Peru, personality-driven movements rarely fade once their leaders have left office. In the face of victimization, real or imagined, they often thrive.What, then, of Trumpism' While these movements differ in ideology and context, they can be instructive in anticipating what happens next.SILVIO BERLUSCONIOf the worlds most notable populist leaders, perhaps none has garnered more comparisons to Trump than the former Italian prime minister. Berlusconi was Trump before Trump: a billionaire businessman and television personality who rose to power by railing against the political establishment and pledging to represent the interests of ordinary people. Though his career of more than two decades has been dogged by scandals, investigations, and trialsevidence, Berlusconi claimed in 2009, that he is the most persecuted person in historyhe has nonetheless remained a political force since his (most recent) resignation from the premiership in 2011, both within his center-right Forza Italia party, of which he remains leader, as well as in national politics more broadly.A notable difference between Trump and Berlusconi is that the latter has lost elections without incident. Still, there are elements of Berlusconis long tenure that Trump could seek to emulate, not least his ability to stage multiple political comebacks (his latest, as a lawmaker in the European Parliament).But perhaps Berlusconis greatest success has been in his ability to retain his base of loyal supportersa personality cult that continues to see him as akin to a god. This is one outcome Trump can likely rely on: Even in the aftermath of last months deadly insurrection on Capitol Hill, Republican voters still approve of the former president in overwhelming numbers, as do many of the Republican state parties across the country.JUAN PERNTo understand the importance that a loyal base can play, look no further than Peronism. The populist movement, which dates back to the rise of former Argentine President Juan Pern in the 1940s, continues to be the preeminent political force in the country, more than four decades after its namesakes death. This has to do largely with how Pern came to power and, crucially, how he lost it.Like most populist figures, Pern cast himself as an advocate of ordinary citizens, and, in many ways, he was: In addition to advancing workers rights, he oversaw the enfranchisement of women in Argentina. But, like other populists, Pern became more and more authoritarian over the course of his rule, jailing his political opponents, vilifying the media, and restricting constitutional rights. By 1955, after nearly a decade in power, Pern was deposed in a coup and sent into exile in Spain; his party was banned.His supporters continued to be extremely loyal to him, thoughso much so that by the time Argentinas constitutional democracy was restored nearly two decades later, Pern won reelection by a landslide.Part of Perns enduring appeal had to do with the circumstances under which he lost power: His forced exile created a narrative of victimization, which can really actually help to solidify political identities, James Loxton, an expert in authoritarian regimes, democratization, and political parties in Latin America, told me. A similar sense of grievance seems to be taking over Trump supporters. An overwhelming majority of Republicans have subscribed to the former presidents unfounded claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him. Early polls show him to be the favorite of the 2024 Republican contenders. This idea that he didnt really lose and that everybody is out to get him, Loxton said, add[s] up to this actually quite compelling martyrdom story.Irrespective of whether Trump runs again, Trumpism as a movement is all but certain to be on the ballot. Indeed, a number of Trump acolytesamong them Republican Senator Josh Hawley, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeoare already jockeying to succeed the former president. Should they be recognized as the Trumpist candidates, the movement could take on a Pernist quality: one that is highly mobilizing, highly polarizing, and highly durable.ALBERTO FUJIMORIAnother populist movement that has endured long after its namesake is Fujimorismo. Named after Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori, whose decade of authoritarian rule ended in a corruption scandal in 2001, Fujimorismo remains a dominant force in Peruvian politics. Unlike Peronism, however, Fujimorismo has largely remained within the family: Fujimoris children, Keiko and Kenji, lead rival factions of the movement, though neither has managed to succeed their father in the presidency. (Fujimori himself, who was convicted of human-rights abuses in 2009, remains in prison.)With at least some of Trumps children and extended family eyeing political careers of their own, its possible that Trumpism could end up resembling Fujimorismo more than Peronism. In some ways, it already does: All three of his eldest children have held roles in the eponymous family business. Should any of Trumps children seek political office, its all but assumed that they will do so not as regular Republicans, but as heirs to the Trumpist throne.But success isnt a given. While the Trump name would almost certainly be an asset in any primary or Trump-leaning district, his children would also need to be able to rival their fathers emotional connection with his supporters. Keiko Fujimori benefited massively from her surname and the fact that there was still a large chunk of the Peruvian population that really identified with Fujimorismo and the accomplishments of Fujimoris government, Loxton said. It helps, he added, that she is also really good at politics. Yet she still has not yet ascended to the heights of her father.Whatever model Trumpism ultimately followswhether its Berlusconism, Peronism, Fujimorismo, a combination of the three, or none at allits widely accepted that the movement will continue to exist in some form.Dan Slater, the director of the Weiser Center for Emerging Democracies at the University of Michigan, told me that what form it takes will depend on whether American politics chooses to reorient itself not on party lines but, rather, in terms of whether you are pro- or anti-Trump, a shift not too dissimilar to how British politics realigned between those who opposed or supported Brexit.In the same way that Peronism versus anti-Peronism has shaped and structured Argentinian politics for decades, Slater said, it strikes me as quite likely that a fundamental conflict between Trumpism and anti-Trumpism is going to shape American politics for a long time to come as well.This article was originally published in www.theatlantic.com
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