THE declared victory of Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood in the hotly contested presidential runoff election in Egypt portends a watershed in the political history of that country, coming as it were, after the 30-year rule of President Hosni Mubarak. But beyond the jubilation now prevailing in the land is an atmosphere of uncertainty arising from the absence of a functioning parliament, coupled with the domineering role of the military in the runoff to the election.Morsi won the runoff after garnering almost 52 per cent of the votes to the 48 per cent posted by his opponent, Ahmed Shafik, a General in the Egyptian Army. The outcome of the election is a firm statement of Egyptians' desire for a major shift in government.A year ago, the Egyptians decided that they had had enough of Mubarak's 30-year reign. They repeatedly massed out in thousands in Tahrir Square, demanding change. It was a spectacular movement as Muslims and Christians joined hands in the call for a new and democratic Egypt. In the melee that followed, the Egyptian military was commended for showing restraint in a situation that could have degenerated into a Syrian-type showdown.President Mubarak has of course been overthrown by the voice of the people and charged to court with some of his sons and supporters. He is at the moment ill and serving a life sentence. The military, finding itself in a caretaker role, organised parliamentary elections to the legislature in which the Muslim Brotherhood won a majority of seats. The next round was the turn of presidential candidates. With no clear winner in the first round, two candidates, Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood and Ahmed Shafiq, a General and Hosni Mubarak's last Prime Minister, were pitched against each other in a runoff.In a surprise move, the Egyptian judiciary annulled the results of the already concluded legislative election. The military, in obedience to a court order, sacked all members of the lower house of parliament. With no functioning parliament and no one available to write the new constitution, the military has appropriated all legislative and budgetary powers to itself. As at the time of the presidential election, it is not known what the powers of the new president will be in the absence of a yet-to-be-written constitution.Tension has drastically subsided with the declared victory, but the result, when added to a domineering military, is hardly a mandate for a permanent and profound social change that the protesters of Tahrir had hoped for. The victory of the Muslim Brotherhood has expectedly led to wild jubilations in Tahrir Square. But Egypt is far from being at peace. The results show that nearly as many persons that voted for the Muslim Brotherhood also voted for Shafiq. There is a third group of Egyptian society that did not bother to vote in the runoff. For them, both candidates represent extremes ' the one, Islamist and the other a member of the old guard. For this group, a broader choice of candidates would have been preferred.But experienced persons like Mohamed El Baradei, and Amr Moussa had been excluded. With the declared results, the Muslim Brotherhood must strike a note of conciliation and resist the urge to be pushed into more militant forms of Islam. President Morsi has promised to choose a prime minister outside the Muslim Brotherhood. Generally, the Muslim Brotherhood has been at pains to present a non-threatening face to the rest of Egyptian society ' but its opponents have lots of unanswered questions about what Islamist rule might ultimately mean. Many fear that this win may ultimately lead to the practice of an aggressive and intolerant political form of Islam. The Brotherhood should work to debunk this notion.Egypt is a strategic country in the Middle East. The new leaders will have to manage the relations with Israel for whom Egypt has always acted as go-between in several conflicts. It has to cautiously engage with the military, which have more or less been a permanent feature of Egyptian government. There are many things at stake, including relations with Washington that regularly funds the Egyptian military. Finally, the new rulers must remember that the ordinary Egyptian, in overthrowing the Mubarak regime, is looking forward to an improvement in the economy and in his individual circumstances.With uncertainty looming over Egypt, there are lessons to be learned. Those who aspire to overthrow the status quo must be fully prepared. The impressive and sustained protests in Egypt did not have a leader nor, as in the case of Libya, a territory. The protesters appeared to be united in nothing more than to overthrow Mubarak. With Mubarak gone, the Muslim Brotherhood is the beneficiary of those protests. Whether or not this was what the protesters had in mind remains to be seen. But the Muslim Brotherhood can make things easier for their countrymen of all beliefs and cultures by running an enlightened and inclusive government.
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